Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.503414 1.590004 1.680455 1.782256 1.893968 2.013194 2.150548
2025-11-30 1.383041 1.504968 1.638198 1.795600 1.977810 2.183759 2.436549
2025-12-07 1.286287 1.425209 1.581473 1.772107 2.000976 2.270343 2.616681
2025-12-14 1.201160 1.348783 1.518460 1.730575 1.992551 2.310982 2.736285
2025-12-21 1.145836 1.301809 1.484538 1.718030 2.013971 2.384664 2.898130
2025-12-28 1.113776 1.279517 1.477264 1.735373 2.070975 2.504260 3.127398
2026-01-04 1.071220 1.241489 1.447610 1.721300 2.084684 2.565824 3.280341
2026-01-11 1.047982 1.225632 1.443957 1.739124 2.139860 2.685185 3.524360
2026-01-18 1.020330 1.202560 1.429427 1.740972 2.172316 2.773828 3.730073
2026-01-25 1.007930 1.197955 1.437888 1.773101 2.247491 2.927688 4.050734
2026-02-01 0.970132 1.158950 1.399426 1.738997 2.226187 2.937184 4.140234
2026-02-08 0.929800 1.115208 1.352941 1.691466 2.182459 2.909217 4.163700
2026-02-15 0.905377 1.092438 1.334744 1.684197 2.199542 2.979241 4.368038
2026-02-22 0.888750 1.079390 1.329095 1.694304 2.242973 3.093943 4.665791
2026-03-01 0.862184 1.052014 1.302648 1.672954 2.236870 3.127705 4.819036
2026-03-08 0.831524 1.018126 1.265968 1.634946 2.202631 3.112099 4.876043
2026-03-15 0.811689 0.998273 1.247997 1.623461 2.208903 3.164348 5.071213
2026-03-22 0.802076 0.991981 1.248618 1.639339 2.259115 3.295239 5.443176
2026-03-29 0.783795 0.973148 1.230769 1.626455 2.261793 3.342466 5.646093
2026-04-05 0.775629 0.968035 1.232192 1.642773 2.313067 3.480803 6.070035
2026-04-12 0.763440 0.956890 1.224462 1.644464 2.339719 3.575728 6.411577
2026-04-19 0.760021 0.957918 1.234320 1.673856 2.415034 3.769329 7.027649
2026-04-26 0.739332 0.933881 1.206652 1.642657 2.383338 3.751837 7.109611